The Forefather of Prediction Markets...

EPISODE 340: ...has made zero dollars off prediction markets.

So you may have noticed that:

1. Too much is happening right now;

2. Reality has never been more contested.

We’re watching the federal government killing American citizens in Minnesota and millions of new Epstein Files finally getting released and also the most-watched TV show in America is happening Sunday: Super Bowl 60.

And now, thanks to the rise of prediction markets, there’s a way to bet on all of this. As if everything, suddenly, is sports gambling.

Polymarket and Kalshi, each worth billions of dollars, promise a better way to forecast everything from foreign invasions to rushing yardage by using the wisdom of crowds to predict what happens next.

But as apocalyptic as all this feels: what I wanted to do was understand not just where we’re going, but how we got here.

So I did something that is increasingly unpopular: I turned to an expert.

Friend of PTFO James Surowiecki happens to be a brilliant financial writer who authored a book — in 2004! — that I had to read as part of my sociology coursework in college: The Wisdom of Crowds.

It is the foundational text underpinning the business of predictions markets, as you’ll see, with a legacy that now reaches into all of our pockets… leaving one of the Top 100 EA Sports NHL players in the world behind.

YOUTUBE SPOILER ALERT:

Gracias,

Pablo